Reassessment of Human Germline Mutation Rates, Generation Times, and Molecular Clock Calibration
Reassessment of Human Germline Mutation Rates, Generation Times, and Molecular Clock Calibration Author: Jason Bulsa Abstract Standard phylogenetic models assume mutation rates of approximately 1 to 1.5 × 10^-8 per site per generation and average generation times of 20 to 30 years, yielding human divergence timelines on the order of 50,000 years or more. Here we argue these parameters are miscalibrated by roughly an order of magnitude. Adjusting the per-generation mutation rate downward by a factor of 10 and extending the effective generation time to approximately 230 years compresses major human genetic divergences to roughly 4,500 to 4,600 years ago. These revised parameters better align certain genetic datasets with a significantly shorter human timeline. Introduction Current molecular clocks for human Y-chromosome, mitochondrial, and autosomal DNA rely on mutation rates derived from pedigree studies and phylogenetic calibrations. These models often span 200 generations for rec...
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